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A/AC.25/Org/11
8 May 1949

Original: English

UNITED NATIONS CONCILIATION COMMISSION FOR PALESTINE


Letter dated 4 May 1949 addressed to the Chairman of
the Conciliation Commission by Mr. Howard Wriggins,
Geneva Representative, American Friends Service
Committee, Enclosing an Analysis of Palestine Population
Statistics.


Enclosed please find an analysis of Palestine population statistics which I prepared in an effort to estimate the proportion of Arab refugees receiving UNRPR assistance, whose homes were in areas now under Israeli control. The guess work of course is considerable but I believe these are as firm figures as is possible to prepare from the information available in Geneva.

Yours sincerely,

S/ Howard Wriggins

Howard Wriggins
Geneva Representative
American Friends Service Committee

Origin of UNRPR Refugees — Revised Analysis I.

A. CONCLUSION. B. THESE CONCLUSIONS HAVE BEEN REACHED AS FOLLOWS:- (5) Natural Increase of Arab population: 28 per 1,000

Table 6, p. 144, Vol. I — 28 an estimate, on basis of constantly increasing Arab rate; slightly declining Christian rate of natural increase.

(6) Percentage of Arabs not included in “Settled Moslems” 18.5%

Table 5, p. 143, Vol. I. While all detailed figures are given in “A Survey of Palestine in terms of religion of those with settled residence, we are real concerned with a racial problem. “Comparing the total “Arabs” in 1944 (1,179,000) with the total “Settled Moslems” in 1944, (994,720) it is seen that 18.5% of the latter figure is needed to makeup the total of Arab inhabitants. This total is estimated on an extrapolation of the 1931 census, and is taken directly from “A Survey of Palestine.”

(7) Arabs normally in areas acquired by Israel as result of War. 248,376

(Source: Estimate by H. Wriggins. Areas acquired by Israel, based on comparison of Map No 82 (U.N: Presentation 529, September, 1947, “Plan of Partition with Economic Union”, Majority Proposal, delimiting area containing B (3) a) above with Israeli War Map, January 1949, made available by Israeli representative Geneva. Estimates of population in areas acquired by Israel based on population estimates as of 1944, provided by the Government of Palestine to the Anglo-American Committee of Inquiry, 1946. (Vol. I Pages 151, 152). The relevant areas and population figures are as follows:

a) “Settled. Moslems” normally in areas acquired by Israel:
Name of Sub-district
1944
Three
Times
Annual
Increase
Sum
Total
ACRECity and Sub-district
47,290
3,972
51,262
NAZARETHTown and half rural pop.4/
16,525
1,386
17,911
RAMLELydda and Ramis towns and three-fifths rural population
63,860
5,364
69,224
HEBRONOne fifth rural population
12,600
1,056
13,656
GAZAMajdal and half rural population
48,995
4,116
53,111
JERUSALEM5/One quarter rural population
16,000
1,344
17,344
TOTAL
222,508
Total carried forward
222,508
b) “Settled Moslems” normally in areas assigned to Israel by Partition Plan, but not at present under Israel control. Tulkarm: one fifth rural population.
12,908
c) Total “Settled Moslems” added to Israel as result of war in Palestine.
209,600
d) Total Arabs other than “Settled Moslems equal 18.5% of (c)
38,776
(8) Total Arabs at present in Israel.
75,000

From Israel Representative to the United Nations, based on census made prior to March Israel election.

C. ERRORS:

SUMMARY OF PROBABLE ERROR

Taken together, these possible, and probable errors suggest that the figure of 700,000 is more likely to be the correct conclusion than the 660,000 figure.

Footnotes
1/c.f. U.N. Special Committee on Palestine A/364/September 1947, P. 54.
2/Estimate by H. Wriggins; c.f. para 7, below for derivation.
3/Correction of error in earlier figures.
4/ Jerusalem Sub-district not previously considered. Jerusalem City still excluded.


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Analyse des statistiques de la population de Palestine (réfugiés reçoivent de l'aide de l’UNRPR) - CCNUP - Lettre / Analyse du comité : American friends service Français