2. Palestinian Ministry of Finance “Report on Fiscal Developments in April-September 1997 and Outlook for Remainder of 1997,” 31 October, 1997.
3. Labour flow estimates in this table exclude unofficial--non-permitted--labour flows from the West Bank. In estimating total labour flows, it was assumed that the per cent difference between the number of permits issued and actual labour flows on a monthly basis in the West Bank was the same as that in Gaza (for which relatively accurate data exist). Furthermore, because there are no accurate data on actual flows of labour to Israeli settlements, the assumption is made that all permits issued for this purpose were used, an assumption which overestimates to some extent total actual flows. Daily labour flow averages are calculated exclusive of weekends and all officially celebrated Jewish and Muslim holidays. Estimates are based on data and assistance provided by the Palestinian Ministry of Labour, the Palestinian National Security Service, Northern Command Area, Gaza and the Economics Branch of the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), Israeli Ministry of Defense, Tel Aviv.
4. Based on information from the PA Ministry of Labour.
5. Estimates of non-permitted West Bank labour flows to Israel are based on PCBS survey estimates of the proportion of WBGS workers employed in Israel during the first three quarters of 1997 in relation to UNSCO estimates of permitted labour flows. See PCBS Press Conference on the Labour Force Survey Results for the February-March, April-June and July-September 1997 Rounds.
6. These include the Gaza Strip crossing points at Erez/Beit Hanoun, the Erez Industrial Zone, Nahal Oz/Shuja’iyeh, Karni/Muntar, Sufa and Rafah and the West Bank bridges to Jordan---the Damiyeh/Adam and the Allenby/Karameh. The significant volume of commercial truck traffic between Israel and the West Bank is not monitored at fixed crossing points and is, therefore, not included in these estimates. Thus data and analysis here are mainly illustrative of trends in Gaza-Israel trade.
7. Data were gathered by UNSCO researchers with the cooperation of the PA Ministry of Economy and Trade, the PA crossing authorities and COGAT. Estimates exclude exports through the Rafah crossing--generally quite small--for which no data were made available. Daily averages are calculated exclusive of half the Fridays and all Saturdays and officially celebrated Jewish and Muslim holidays during which truck flows cease altogether or are negligible. See UNSCO Quarterly Report, 1 April 1997, pp. 45-46.
8. UNCTAD Private Investment in the Palestinian Territory; Recent Trends and Immediate Prospects, 30 July 1996, Chapter III. Over 80 per cent of WBGS private investment during the 1980s and early 1990s was concentrated in the construction branch--mainly for private residences. In the early 1990s, the World Bank estimated that WBGS residential construction contributed to over 20 per cent of the GDP, as compared to about 7.3 per cent in other economies with similar levels of income. World Bank Developing the Occupied Territories, volume three, p. 11.
9. There may be a significant lag time between the licensing of a project and the actual commencement or completion of work. Furthermore, in addition to formally licensed projects, there are unlicensed construction activities not reflected in the licensing data. With the assistance of the PCBS.
10. Comparing the same period in two years largely eliminates fluctuations which may be caused by seasonal factors. Data for fourth-quarter 1997 are presently not available from PCBS.
11. PCBS Construction Statistics: Building Licences vol. 1, issues 1-3 (1996); vol. 2, issues 1-3, (1997).
12. COGAT, Israeli Ministry of Defense, Tel Aviv, 12 January, 1998.
13. Whether the intention is translated into actual investment, however, depends on a number of variables including expectations about future business conditions and perceptions of political risk factors.
14. Data on company registrations are from the Companies Controller in the West Bank and the Companies Registrar in Gaza. With the assistance of the respective offices.
15. Data on bank activity are from the Palestinian Monetary Authority (PMA), 2 March 1998. With the assistance of the PMA.
16. Data on outstanding loans are from the PMA Monthly Statistical Bulletin, December 1997 and PMA unpublished data. Information on the composition of lending is from the PMA, unpublished data. With the assistance of the PMA. Also, see MAS Economic Monitor, Number 2, December 1997, pp. 18-20.
17. See UNSCO The West Bank and Gaza Strip Private Economy: Conditions and Prospects; Special Report, February 1998.
18. Information and assistance provided by the mentioned NGOs and UNRWA.
19. Draft Minutes of Joint Liaison Committee Meeting, 5 December 1996; Palestinian Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Aid Coordination Department Summary Tables of Donor Assistance, 4 October 1997.
20. Palestinian Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, Aid Coordination Department 1997 Fourth Quarterly Monitoring Report of Donor Assistance, 31 December, 1997.
21. Gross fixed capital formation figures are from PCBS National Accounts-Preliminary Estimates 1994, 1995 and 1996. Public gross fixed capital formation was about US$ 56.9, 192.8 and 161.7 million in 1994, 1995 and 1996 respectively. With the assistance of the PCBS. Annual donor disbursement levels are from MOPIC Monitoring Report of Donor Assistance, 31 December 1997.
22. See Palestinian National Authority Palestinian Development Plan, 1998-2000; Summary Document, December 1997.
23. Closure days are UNSCO estimates based on data from the Palestinian Ministry of Labour. See UNSCO Quarterly Report, 1 April 1997, p. 45.
24. Internal closures prevented personal and commercial mobility between cities in the West Bank. See LACC Secretariat “Fact Sheet: Closure on the West Bank and Gaza, August-September 1997,” 6 October 1997.
25. Estimates of labour and commercial truck flows through monitored crossings for the February-March 1996 and August-September 1997 periods are UNSCO estimates based on data from Palestinian Authority and Government of Israel agencies.
26. See Local Aid Coordination Committee Secretariat “Fact Sheet: Closure on the West Bank and Gaza, August-September 1997,” 6 October 1997.
27. Regional estimates of GDP growth rates are from Mohamed El-Erian and Susan Fennell The Economy of the Middle East and North Africa in 1997, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, November 1997, pp. 4-5. WBGS estimates are from various reports of the Palestinian Ministry of Finance and the IMF.
28. PCBS National Accounts, 1994: Preliminary Estimates (January 1997) and National Accounts 1995-1996: Preliminary Estimates (Draft), December 1997.
29. The public sector share of GDP includes the following: producers of government services, education, health and social work, customs duties and net VAT on imports. The public sector share rose from 13.5 to 24.1 per cent of GDP during 1994-1996. Excluding the public sector from the analysis raises the relative contribution of the various economic branches in GDP. Caution is therefore warranted in using the results of this exercise.
30. See UNSCO Quarterly Report, 1 April 1997.
31. The relative branch contributions are based on nominal estimates of GDP by branch in PCBS National Accounts, 1994: Preliminary Estimates (January 1997) and National Accounts 1995-1996: Preliminary Estimates (Draft), December 1997. The economic branches have been consolidated to make them consistent with those used in the labour market section of the present report.
32. See PCBS Internal Trade Survey, 1994: Main Results (November, 1996).
33. This is the average population for the year based on PCBS Demography of the Palestinian Population, 1994. The end-year estimate according to this same source is 2,760,947. The preliminary estimates for the de facto WBGS population at end-year, based on the December 1997 census conducted by the PCBS, is 2,890,631. See PCBS Population, Housing and Establishment Census 1997; Press Conference on the Census Preliminary Results, 7 February 1998.
34. All population and labour force figures pertaining to 1996 are based on the last three quarters of the year due to the fact that PCBS did not conduct a labour force survey during first-quarter 1996. Figures for 1997 are based on the first three quarters of the year since PCBS has yet to release data on the fourth quarter.
35. Calculations are based on PCBS Labour Force Survey: Main Findings, Nos. 2-7. Labour force participation, full-employment, underemployment and unemployment rates are weighted by age group for persons 15-64 years of age. The adjusted unemployment rate is defined as the weighted unemployment rate plus the proportion of the working-age population who were “discouraged workers”--i.e., unemployed and not actively searching for employment for a reason other than illness, temporary work stoppage, school attendance, homemaking responsibilities or old age. Population data used to calculate total magnitudes are middle-series estimates for 1996 and 1997 from PCBS Demography of the Palestinian Population, 1994.
36. Based on PCBS Labour Force Survey: Main Findings, Nos. 2-7.
37. See UNSCO The West Bank and Gaza Strip Private Economy, February 1998.
38. See UNSCO Quarterly Report, 29 October 1996.
39. See UNSCO Quarterly Report, 4 October 1997.
40. ibid. , p. 12.
41. See UNSCO The West Bank and Gaza Strip Private Economy, February 1998. Eight new hotels were opened in the WBGS in the first half of 1997. See MAS Economic Monitor, Issue No. 2, 1997, p. 14. Nonetheless, the employment impact of both hotel and restaurant activity is relatively limited.
42. See UNSCO The West Bank and Gaza Strip Private Economy, February 1998, Annex IV.
43. Based on PCBS Labour Force Survey: Main Findings, Nos. 2-7. PA employment estimates are from Palestinian Ministry of Finance “Report on Fiscal Developments” various issues.
44. See UNSCO Quarterly Report, 4 October 1997, p. 14.
45. See PCBS The Establishment Census, 1994; Final Results, August 1995.
46. See PCBS Services Survey, 1994: Main Results, November, 1996 and UNSCO The West Bank and Gaza Strip Private Economy, February 1998, Annex IV.
47. Based on PCBS Labour Force Survey: Main Findings, Nos. 2-7. Labor force participation, full employment, underemployment and unemployment rates are weighted by age group for persons 15-64 years of age.
48. See UNSCO Quarterly Report, 4 October 1997, p. 17.
49. For female participation in various economic branches, see PCBS Labour Force Surveys.
50. See UNSCO Quarterly Report 1 April, 1997, p. 32.
51. Data in this table are from PCBS Labour Force Surveys and weighted averages of employment in the West Bank, Gaza and Israel from PCBS Press Conference on Labour Force Results Rounds 2-7. Nominal daily and monthly wages were converted from NIS to US$ using average quarterly exchange rates and deflated using the average regional CPI with a 1996 base period. See PCBS Consumer Price Index, various issues. The depreciation of the NIS relative to the US$ is responsible for approximately 2.5 percentage points of the reduction in daily and monthly wages. Monthly wage incomes are calculated by multiplying the average daily wage rate by the average number of days worked per month.
52. PCBS did not conduct the household expenditure survey during the fourth quarter of 1996.
53. Expenditures data for the first and second quarter of 1997 are from PCBS Expenditure and Consumption Levels; Semi-annual Report (January-June 1997), September 1997. Third and fourth quarter expenditures are from unpublished PCBS data. Original survey data, expressed in nominal JDs, were converted to US$ using the average JD/US$ exchange rates. Expenditures are deflated using the average CPI for each expenditure group for each period with base period in 1996. See PCBS Consumer Price Index (Revised Series), various issues. Taxes and other cash expenditures were deflated using the overall CPI.
54. Household expenditure averages for 1996 were calculated based on the first nine months of that year, as fourth quarter data are unavailable. PCBS Expenditure and Consumption Levels; Annual Report, January 1997.
55. UNSCO Quarterly Report, 1 April, 1997, p. 35.
56. Household expenditure calculations are taken from Table 11. Real monthly wages are taken from Table 9. Expenditures and were converted to US$ from data expressed in JDs while wages were converted to US$ from NIS. While the US$/JD exchange rate was relatively stable during the period under analysis, the NIS depreciated against the US$. Therefore, the decline in real monthly wages, expressed in US$, includes the effects of the exchange rate movement. This overstates, to some extent, both the purchasing power decline of monthly wages and the improvement in wage sufficiency.
57. See IMF Recent Economic Developments, February 1997, p. 13.
58. Data in this table are based on PCBS Consumer Price Index, Revised Series, various issues and unpublished data for the fourth quarter of 1997. Data in this table cover the period December 1996-December 1997. PCBS notes that the CPI for the Palestinian Territories is a separate composite index--not the average of East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
59. Data in this table are derived from PCBS Consumer Price Index, Revised Series, various issues and unpublished data for the fourth quarter of 1997 using a 1996 base period. Inflation rates and relative price changes are for the period December 1995-December 1997.